F6 - An artificial intelligence system for predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients in the emergency department

Farah Shamout, Yiqiu Shen, Nan Wu, Aakash Kaku, Jungkyu Park, Taro Makino, Stanisław Jastrzębski, Jan Witowski, Duo Wang, Ben Zhang, Siddhant Dogra, Meng Cao, Narges Razavian, David Kudlowitz, Lea Azour, William Moore, Yvonne Lui, Yindalon Aphinyanaphongs, Carlos Fernandez-Granda, Krzysztof J. Geras

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid and accurate triage of patients at the emergency department is critical to inform decision-making. We propose a data-driven approach for prediction of deterioration risk using a deep neural network that learns from chest X-ray images, and a gradient boosting model that learns from routine clinical variables. Our AI prognosis system, trained using data from 3,661 patients, achieves the AUC of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.742-0.827) when predicting deterioration within 96 hours. Our deep neural network indicates informative areas of chest X-ray images to assist clinicians in interpreting the predictions, and performs comparably to two experienced chest radiologists in a reader study. In summary, our findings demonstrate the potential of the proposed system for assisting front-line physicians in the triage of COVID-19 patients.
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Thursday 8th July
F1-9 (short): Imaging: Reconstruction and Clinical Data - 13:45 - 14:30 (UTC+2)
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